In 2023, whether it is project promotion or technological innovation,New energy storageAll achieved rapid development。According to the incomplete statistics of the Global Energy Storage Database of the China Energy Research Society/Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry (CNESA),2023,China's newly added new energy storage installed capacity is 21.5 Gava/46.6 Gava time,Breakthrough 20 Java for the first time,Three times the level of 2022,Power and energy scale increased by more than 150%year -on -year。More than 100 MPA -class projects are put into operation,year -on -year increased by 370%; the application of non -lithium energy storage technology gradually breaks through,A variety of long -term energy storage projects are included in the provincial demonstration project list。The average price of the energy storage system in the energy storage system continues to decline,Take a lithium battery as an example,Affected by factors such as the decline in the price of upstream raw materials and the intensification of competition,From December 2023,Lithium battery price fell to 0.79 yuan/watt -hour,Compared to the near beginning of the year, chop,and a quotation of less than 0.6 yuan/watt -hour appeared; the market participation subject has a breakthrough in quantity and type。
2024,The new energy storage market will continue the high -speed development situation,It is expected that the new installation capacity will exceed 35 GW,It is expected to achieve a single year -on -year installation capacity exceeding the cumulative installed capacity for 3 consecutive years。The rapid development of domestic energy storage technology,The cost further decreases,Enterprise accelerates the layout of the sea,But facing challenges in terms of trade barriers and international standards。
(Source: Energy Review • Chief Energy View Literature / Chen Haisheng Chairman of the Energy Storage Special Committee of the China Energy Research Association、Director of the Institute of Engineering Thermal Physics of the Institute of Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)
With the continuous improvement of policies and rules,The economy of new energy storage products is expected to improve,The business model is more mature,Energy Storage Power StationThe operating level of the operation will continue to improve。At the same time,Production capacity or continue to expand,Companies with lack of funds and insufficient technical accumulation will face greater pressure。
The layout of the industrial chain presents three major characteristics
Current,New energy storage presents the following three characteristics in the layout of the industrial chain:
First is the new type of energy storage all technical routes.。Except for lithium batteries,Compressed air storage、liquid flow battery energy storage、Sodium ion batteries and many other new energy storage technologies have gradually gradually developed from research and development to demonstration and large -scale applications。The National Energy Administration 2024 Announcement "Notice m88 live casinoof the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration on the Public New Energy Storage Pilot Demonstration Project" will be "300 MW/1800 MW -time compressed air storage energy demonstration project in Shandong Province" in Shandong Province. Wait for 56 projects to be listed as a new type of energy storage pilot demonstration project,Speed up the process of industrialization of various non -lithium new energy storage technology,Especially the status of long -term energy storage has been further improved。
Second, the price of lithium battery energy storage has decreased faster,Industry existence of overcapacity risk。Since 2023,The price of battery -level lithium carbonate continues to decline,The average year -end price has fallen below 100,000 yuan/ton; the average capacity utilization rate of the midstream energy storage battery industry is only about 50%;,increased by 257%year -on -year,But the average price of winning the bid continues to go down,Compared with early 2023, almost chop。
Third, in the context of intensified domestic competition,Enterprise increases overseas layout strength。Current,Overseas regional market profit models are clearer,Market space is gradually released,Many domestic companies rely on technical advantages and cost advantages,One after another to open up overseas markets。It is worth noting that,Overseas market environment is gradually changing,The tendency of "trade protection" and "localization of production capacity" in some countries,EU "New Battery Act"、The influence of policies such as the "Inflation Act" and other policies of the United States further expand。
& gt; & gt; December 2023,Staff introduced the 100 MW advanced compressed air storage technology exhibited in the Zhongguancun National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone Exhibition Center — Compressed air storage sand table model。
2024,Non -lithium new energy storage technology will be further verified by the market,Application scale is expected to expand,Especially compressed air energy storage、The installed capacity of long -term energy storage such as liquid flow battery energy storage will show a rapid growth trend。Lithium battery industry chain,Large batteries above 300 amp will go from design to application,The penetration rate may gradually increase。It is estimated that the upstream material link,Competition of production capacity and price will continue for a period of time; downstream fields,The advantages of intelligent operation and maintenance and operation of the power station will be highlighted。With the battery cell、Decrease in the cost of energy storage system,The investment yield of energy storage power stations will improve。
Two types of technology routes are worthy of attention
2024,Long -term energy storage and short -term high -frequency energy storage two technical routes are worthy of attention。
Long -term energy storage can increase the demand for stability systems for power systems。With the continuous expansion of the scale of new energy power generation,,intermittent、Unstable brings greater pressure to peak adjustment。Long -term energy storage can rely on its long cycle、characteristics of large capacity,Adjust the fluctuation of new energy power generation,Improve the level of the power system for the power system。Compressed air、m88 live casino and sports bettingLiquid battery、Application of long -term energy storage technology such as heat storage,It will meet the needs of the safe and stable operation of the power system。
According to statistics from Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance,Xinjiang has already already available、Gansu、Qinghai、Tibet、Inner Mongolia、Hebei, including more than 10 provinces including Hebei, clearly proposed that long -term energy storage for more than 4 hours at the new energy field station。In July 2023, the Energy Bureau of Shandong Province issued the "Several Measures on Supporting the Application of Energy Storage Pilot Long -term Energy Storage",It is clearly proposed that long -term energy storage can enjoy priority access to the grid、Preferring Lease、Capacity compensation standard、Promoting preferential policies such as improving reduction and power transmission and distribution price。Combining policies in various places,2024 Focus on compressed air storage energy、Liquid battery、long -term energy storage technology for heat storage。
Short -term high -frequency energy storage technology includes flywheel energy storage、Super Capacitor、superconducting magnetic storage, etc.。The continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy will increase the volatility of the grid,To cope with the rapid access to new energy,Ensure that the balance of the power system,Increased demand for instantaneous adjustment of the power system,New energy storage technology with fast adjustment ability has become an important regulatory method for power system solution to power balance and system stability。March 2022,National Development Reform Commission、The National Energy Administration issued the "Fourteen Five -Year Plan" New Energy Storage Development Implementation Plan ",For the first time, it is clear that the "short -term high -frequency energy storage technology" application route,Promoting short -term high -frequency energy storage technology demonstration。In the same year,Shanxi took the lead in opening a frequency adjustment market,,Multi -place incorporate a frequency adjustment into the scope of compensation for paid auxiliary services。Under the support of relevant policies,Energy storage of flywheel、The technology market represented by super capacitance will be further opened。
With various new types of energy storage technology, it continues to break through,Equipment costs continue to decline,The application process of scale will continue to accelerate。According to statistics from Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance,As of the end of December 2023,Liquid Battery Production Line (Planning/under construction/investment) has exceeded 5 Jifa,Involved in the total liquid flow battery、Iron chromium liquid flow battery、zinc iron fluid flow battery、Sulfur iron flow battery、A variety of technical routes such as the whole iron liquid flow battery;,Among them, Shandong Feicheng International's first 300 MW advanced compressed air storage energy demonstration power station pour telegram once successful,Late a solid foundation for the technical research on the next stage of compressed air storage energy and grid -connected power generation。As of the end of 2023,Sodium ion battery production capacity has exceeded 10 Gavaco,Planning m88 best betting websiteand production capacity reached 400 Gavac。At the end of 2023,The first sodium ion battery of the new energy vehicle cooperated with Jiangling Group's first sodium ion battery pure electric A00 model is officially offline,Sodium battery technology begins to industrialize。The continuous demonstration and verification in the field of power energy storage and the continuous decline in costs also prove,Sodium ion battery is a technical route worthy of attention。Another,Energy storage of flywheels、Successful investment in multiple new energy storage projects in super capacitors,It will also accelerate the application of these two technologies in the power system。
Cost to be renewed for guidance standards
Only enhance the revenue of new energy storage power stations,can effectively speed up its commercialization process。In terms of income,Need to improve the spot market、Auxiliary service market、Capacity Market and other power market mechanisms,Greed up the source of energy revenue,At the same time, gradually improve the intelligent decision -making ability of energy storage and power stations,When the power station participates in the power market transaction,Can make trading strategies more accurately,Increase yield。
2023,New energy storage has achieved three major breakthroughs in cost counseling,This laid the foundation for the continuous decline in cost and commercialization in 2024。
First is a breakthrough in the market mechanism。The National Development Reform Commission in May 2022、The "Notice of Further Promoting the New Energy Storage Participation in the Power Market and Schedule" jointly issued by the National Energy Administration,New energy storage can be used as an independent subject to participate in the auxiliary service、"Who benefits、Spot transaction, etc.,Clearly encourages new types of energy storage through the power market to divert costs。In terms of auxiliary services,"Who benefits,Who will bear "principle,Establishing an auxiliary service sharing mechanism for the participation of power users。In terms of spot market,In 2023, the long -term operation of the existing cargo market has been continuously operated,Among them, Shandong、Shanxi、Gansu、Guangdong already has independent energy storage projects to participate in the spot market,Continue to optimize spot transaction rules in many places,Allows independent energy storage to participate in the spot market with two ways: "report quotation" and "not quotation",Market mechanism is more flexible。
Second is a breakthrough in the price mechanism。May 2023,The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice of the Third Regulatory Power Grid Transmission and Power Prices and Related Matters",Adjust the electricity price structure,In the electricity price of industrial and commercial users,System operating costs are newly established (including auxiliary service expenses、Pumping capacity and electricity bills, electricity bills, etc.),Further promotes the cost of assisting services to the user side,The cost of energy storage participating in the auxiliary service market can be guided by electricity price,The establishment of the system adjustment fee also provides a reasonable M88 appexport for the guidance of the cost of regulating resource costs。
Third is a breakthrough in the pumping storage capacity and the electricity price mechanism of thermal power capacity。In 2023,The National Development Reform Commission has successively introduced the "AboutPumping Power Power StationNotice of Capacity Electricity and Related Matters "" Notice on Establishing Coal Capacity Electricity Price Mechanism ",Appraisal Power Power Station、The capacity price of the peak -regulating thermal power plant,It reflects the importance of the country's attention to regulating resources in the construction of new power systems,and the urgent demand for ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power system。The study of the new type of energy storage capacity electricity price mechanism provides reference and guidance,It also prompted the industry to actively evaluate the capacity value of new energy storage。
The development stage of the transition period of the reform of the power market and the gradual exploration of energy storage costs,It is necessary to study a reasonable price mechanism,Reasonable compensation for the capacity value of new energy storage。So,Should be combined with the demand for the construction of new power system,Construction of market mechanism in combination with different application scenarios,Comprehensive consideration of various types of energy storage technology、Functional role and service value,Basic principles of "pay by effect","Equivalence and Equality" formulate a reasonable cost dredging mechanism,Launch a sustainable business model,To form reasonable expectations,Attract social capital for layout。
Standard formulation of long -term development related to new energy storage。In recent years,In the "Implementation Plan on Strengthening the Standardization of Energy Storage Standardization", "Energy Carbon Dafeng Carbon Neutralization and standardization Action Plan", "Implementation Plan for the Standardization of New Industry (2023-2035)",Combined with the construction and operation experience of the energy storage demonstration project in recent years,my country has initially formed a relatively complete、Covering energy storage plan、Construction、grid、System、subsystems/parts、New energy storage standard system that uses and recycled and recycled。
Current,Some projects that have developed rapidly in China urgently need new standards,Such as a hundred MW -level energy storage power stations、The design standards of the two types of projects of industrial and commercial energy storage GB51048 have not yet been released。other,and NFPA 855、UL 9540、UL 9540a and other international standards compared to,Domestic standards are implemented、The verification method still needs to be improved,It also needs to be recognized by employees of the industry chain。
Energy Storage Industry Chain Long、Covering Professional Wide、There are more competent departments involved,The formulation and management of energy storage standards requires relevant authorities to integrate and benefit,Mobilize different links in the industrial chain、The active initiative of practitioners of different majors,Setting standards scientifically and reasonably m88 live casinoand forming effective connections,to achieve the effect of better promoting the healthy and orderly development of the energy storage industry。